The issue of Western Sahara holds a central place in Spanish political debate. It is the subject of renewed attention through a report published by the Elcano Royal Institute, which analyzes the evolution of Madrid's stance: from defending the principle of self-determination with a view towards independence to explicitly supporting a solution based on autonomy. DR ‹ › According to a recent report by the Royal Elcano Institute, public opinion in Spain continues to strongly support Western Sahara's right to self-determination. This sentiment is deeply rooted in historical solidarity with the Sahrawi people, coupled with an often ambivalent - if not strained - relationship with Morocco. The findings are backed by a public opinion survey conducted by Elcano in July. However, this popular sympathy has consistently been overshadowed on the diplomatic stage by broader priorities, such as ensuring stability along Spain's southern border, safeguarding strategic interests, and maintaining regional and international power balances. Since Spain's withdrawal in 1975 during a fragile post-dictatorship transition, Madrid has taken a pragmatic «lesser-evil» approach. Unable to enforce a solution aligned with its preferences and keen to avoid military confrontation with Morocco, Spain focused on protecting what it deemed vital interests - most notably the security of Ceuta, Melilla, and the Canary Islands. This rationale has persisted under successive democratic governments, which for nearly 45 years maintained an officially neutral stance, supporting the UN-led process while avoiding direct confrontation with Rabat. As the Elcano Institute notes, «Spain neither had the motivation nor the necessary international backing» to impose its own position. This neutrality was shaped by several structural factors: Morocco's strategic importance in security cooperation, migration management, and counterterrorism; concerns over the viability of a fragile and heavily dependent Sahrawi state; the enduring rivalry between Rabat and Algiers; and Spain's limited capacity to influence a conflict largely determined by realities on the ground and the decisions of major powers. The Soviet bloc also adopted a cautious stance. Despite Algeria's ideological alignment with socialist states, Moscow avoided any direct clash with Rabat, partly due to Morocco's diplomatic maneuvering. Most Warsaw Pact countries abstained during UN votes in December 1975, a form of neutrality that ultimately worked in Morocco's favor, the Elcano Institute recalls. Germany paved the way for Spain Over time, demographic, military, and diplomatic developments have bolstered Morocco's position, while international support for the Polisario Front has steadily waned. The turning point came in March 2022, when the Spanish government described Morocco's autonomy plan as the «most serious, realistic, and credible proposal.» This shift aligns with Spain's longstanding pragmatic approach, reflecting both the consolidation of international backing for Morocco since 2020 and the prolonged paralysis of the UN process. It also signaled Madrid's desire to end a period of acute tensions with Rabat, exemplified by the migration crisis in Ceuta in May 2021. While politically costly at home and destabilizing for relations with Algeria, the decision primarily aimed to restore functional ties with what Spain views as an unavoidable neighbor. Notably, no party supporting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has threatened a no-confidence vote to reverse the policy. Allies of the Polisario have limited their response to non-binding parliamentary resolutions condemning the «shift» announced on March 18, 2022. Despite this major repositioning, one core element remains intact: Spain continues to uphold the principle of self-determination, now reframed within the context of autonomy rather than independence. This approach, increasingly shared by Spain's Western partners, theoretically creates space for promoting a credible Sahrawi autonomy with meaningful guarantees, as Elcano observes. It's also worth noting that Madrid's move was preceded by explicit backing from Germany, a key economic and political driver within the European Union. Berlin formalized its support on December 13, 2021, through a statement by the German Foreign Ministry, and reaffirmed it on January 5, 2022, in a message from the German president to King Mohammed VI. Germany's stance helped pave the way for several EU member states, including Spain, to follow suit.
