Morocco is leveraging its foreign policy and economic partnerships with the EU, Sub-Saharan Africa, and China to bolster support for the Sahara while reducing Algeria's influence in the region. Despite rising tensions with Algeria, BMI Research predicts that economic considerations make a direct conflict unlikely. Morocco will continue leveraging its foreign policy to garner international support for the Sahara and foster economic gains, noted BMI Research, a firm specializing in macroeconomic, industry, and financial market analysis, in a report published Thursday. In a political risk note, BMI reveals that by aligning with key global players and leveraging its strategic position as a major exporter to European markets, Morocco aims to «solidify its claim over Western Sahara». The Fitch Solutions firm highlights that Morocco will primarily focus on strengthening ties with European Union member countries to achieve these foreign policy objectives. «The recent improvement of political ties with Spain and France, amid their recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara, could encourage more European countries to follow suit, in exchange for access to the Moroccan market and cooperation on issues like migration», BMI explains. While the Sahara issue remains a cause of «occasional disagreements with EU members»—such as the recent EU Court of Justice ruling on the Sustainable Fisheries Partnership Agreement with Morocco—BMI predicts such instances will «lessen in the future amid improvements in relations with EU member countries». Reducing Algeria's influence In addition to strengthening support within the EU, Morocco is also seeking to expand economic relations with Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, aiming to «reduce Algeria's historical influence in the region». BMI highlights Morocco's investments in Sub-Saharan countries, led by banks, insurance companies, telecommunications, and construction firms. These efforts are described as «part of a broader strategy to assert Morocco's influence and bolster diplomatic support for its position on the Western Sahara conflict, especially with countries historically within Algeria's sphere of influence in the Sahel». The report also references Morocco's initiatives such as the Atlantic Initiative, its collaborations within the African Union, and investments by phosphate giant OCP Group, which could translate into «political support» for the Kingdom. BMI anticipates that Morocco will also turn to China for further «economic development» while positioning itself as «an alternative partner to Algeria in North Africa». Significant Chinese investments in Morocco in recent years—particularly in infrastructure and industrial projects—have been driven by «Morocco's strategic location near the EU, along with its trade deals with the EU and the United States», making it «an attractive destination for Chinese EV firms looking to circumvent tariffs and tap into European markets», the report adds. While Morocco enhances its position as a strategic partner to both the EU and China, this economic rapprochement could «reduce Algeria's influence in North Africa», BMI notes. However, these moves are not without contention. «As Morocco continues to gather international support for its claim over the territory, we think that tensions with Algeria will remain elevated», BMI states, though it adds that a «war» remains unlikely due to the potential economic repercussions.
