Managing land use in semi-arid regions is challenging because of limited water, degraded soils, and increasing climate pressures. To help with these challenges, researchers from Morocco's Mohammed IV Polytechnic University and the UK's Rothamsted Research and Cranfield University developed a decision-support framework focused on irrigated farming in Morocco. This framework brings together several well-known models to assess the environmental and economic impacts of different crops and irrigation methods, reads a the study published June 1 on Science Direct. It uses the IPCC model to estimate nutrient loss, the Rothamsted model to predict soil organic carbon, and Cornell's Environmental Impact Quotient to measure pesticide effects. A key feature is the use of Monte Carlo simulations, a method that runs many simulations to account for uncertainty. The results are shown with clear visuals to help both policymakers and farmers understand the risks and benefits. Working with local farmers and stakeholders, the team tested scenarios including crop diversification, expanding olive cultivation, and using efficient irrigation like drip systems. The results showed clear trade-offs. Doubling olive production increased carbon storage by 4%, cut water use by 3%, and lowered emissions by 42%. But olives were less profitable, produced fewer edible calories, and caused higher pesticide impacts compared to rotating crops. Diversified cropping reduced harmful pesticide use but was less profitable. Drip irrigation improved profits by 23%, saved 13% water, and reduced nitrogen leaks by 40%, concluded the study. «We found that no single system is perfect», said Dr. Imane El-Fartassi, the lead researcher. «Every choice involves balancing production, profit, and environmental impact. Our framework helps make these trade-offs clear and supports better decision-making».
