Morocco and Algeria's rivalry has expanded beyond politics into economic and diplomatic arenas, with both countries using energy, trade, and migration to gain influence, judges American think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Their competition is also spilling into the Sahel region. The long-standing rivalry between Morocco and Algeria has moved beyond traditional political and military spheres, extending into tarde economic and diplomatic domains, according to a new analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The two neighbors are increasingly using «trade and the energy sector to project power, forge new alliances, and engage in strong-arm tactics against European countries», explains Hamza Meddeb, a fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. Strategic Statecraft Through Energy and Trade According to the U.S.-based think tank, Algeria has «reshaped its position in regional and international geopolitics by aligning its food imports and energy exports with its strategic interests». This shift became apparent in 2021 when Algeria halted gas exports to Spain via Morocco amid rising tensions over the Western Sahara. Algiers has also used trade policy as a diplomatic tool, most notably when it reduced wheat imports from France following Paris's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. Morocco, by contrast, has leaned into renewable energy as a cornerstone of its geopolitical strategy. «Rabat has capitalized on Europe's energy transition and shifting alliances to present itself as a stable partner, a renewable energy leader, and a potential transit hub for West African gas», the paper states. Central to this strategy is the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline, which competes with «Algeria's Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, an agreement for whose launch was signed in 2002 and which was intended to carry gas from Nigeria to Europe via Algeria and Niger». Migration policy has also become a key pillar of Morocco's statecraft. Rabat has used migration control and infrastructure investments to gain diplomatic leverage. Spain backed Morocco's autonomy plan in 2022, followed by France in 2024, moves tied to Morocco's cooperation on border security and access to its growing markets. «The reason for this about-face was Madrid's desire to secure Rabat's cooperation in curbing the flow of irregular migrants to the Spanish North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, as well as the Canary Islands, in 2020 and 2021», the think tank notes. Escalating Rivalry in the Sahel As their rivalry spreads southward, both countries are seeking greater influence in the fragile Sahel region. Algeria, feeling increasingly isolated, has sought to establish a Maghreb bloc that excludes Morocco. In April 2024, it hosted a high-level summit in Tunis with Libya and Tunisia, framed as a response to regional instability but seen as an attempt to assert regional leadership and marginalize Rabat. Morocco, meanwhile, launched the Atlantic Initiative in 2023, aimed at providing landlocked Sahel countries such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso with direct access to Atlantic trade routes via Moroccan ports. However, the think tank cautions that «Morocco needs to show that its plan is not only economically feasible, but also has significant long-term political value, as opposed to being driven by its rivalry with Algeria». The report concludes that both Morocco and Algeria are «pursuing distinct, calculated strategies to position themselves as dominant powers». But in doing so, they risk exporting their rivalry to already volatile regions like the Sahel, escalating tensions and threatening broader regional stability.
