Bank Al-Maghrib sees growth accelerating to 4.6% in 2025 while inflation stays near record lows at 1% this year, but job creation has slowed sharply with only 5,000 net jobs added in Q2 2025. Governor Abdellatif Jouahri also highlighted ongoing talks with the EU over Moroccan banks' branches abroad and confirmed work on a new banking law to update prudential rules and consumer protections. At its third quarterly meeting of the year on Tuesday, Morocco's central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), announced it would keep its key policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing low inflation and steady growth prospects. Speaking at a press briefing in Rabat, BAM's governor Abdellatif Jouahri spelled out the fundamentals of Morocco's current economic outlook from inflation to growth and the employment trends. After growing by 3.8% in 2024, the economy is expected to accelerate to 4.6% in 2025 before easing slightly to 4.4% in 2026, according to Jouahri. Agricultural output is forecast to rise by 5% this year, based on a cereal harvest of 41.3 million quintals, before slowing to 3.2% in 2026, assuming average rainfall. Non-agricultural sectors are projected to remain strong, expanding by about 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by major infrastructure investments. Inflation, employment trends Inflation remains at historically low levels. Prices averaged 1.1% between January and August, with a full-year rate of 1% expected, almost unchanged from 2024, before edging up to 1.9% in 2026. Core inflation is forecast to fall from 2.2% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025, reflecting lower imported inflation and slower fresh-meat price increases, before returning to 2% in 2026. In the short term, fuel and lubricant prices are expected to fall by more than 10% in 2025, then rebound by 5.4% in 2026, while regulated prices are projected to rise by 1.7% next year and 2.5% in 2026. The labor market presents a more complex picture. After strong job creation through late 2024, the second quarter of 2025 saw a sharp slowdown, with just 5,000 net jobs created, Jouahri points out. Agriculture shed 108,000 jobs, while construction added 74,000, services 35,000, and industry only 2,000, he detailed. The national activity rate slipped by 0.8 point to 43.4%, while unemployment fell from 13.1% to 12% overall. Urban joblessness stood at 16.4% and rural unemployment at 6.2%, while youth unemployment remains stubbornly high at nearly 47%. A new banking law, updates on Moroccan banks activities abroad The governor also addressed other key issues. On the new EU regulation targeting foreign bank branches, he said a task force including Bank Al-Maghrib, the Ministries of Finance and Foreign Affairs, and Moroccan banks had been «working tirelessly». After the EU decision was published in June, Morocco began talks with the French Treasury. According to him, these discussions led to a framework that «broadly satisfies» Morocco, but it still requires European Commission approval. Once that is secured, Morocco will move on to negotiations with Spain, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands, where Moroccan banks also operate. Another key reform is the new banking law. Jouahri confirmed that Bank Al-Maghrib has started drafting a new text to replace the current one, dating back to 2014–2015, in order to align with new prudential rules, supervisory tools and stronger consumer protection. The process will take time and require consultations, but the aim is to prepare a draft that can move quickly once negotiations begin. On the foreign exchange regime, the governor stressed that Morocco is not yet ready to move to the next stage, which would involve abandoning the currency basket anchor and allowing the market to fully determine the dirham's value. «I cannot take this step until I am convinced that economic operators fully understand the implications», he said. Instead, Morocco has agreed with the International Monetary Fund IMF to first adopt inflation targeting, without immediately advancing the foreign exchange reform. He explained that the tools, methodology and staff are almost ready. The plan is to run a parallel «test year», in 2026, applying both the current framework and inflation targeting, before officially launching the new regime on January 1, 2027.
