DR ‹ › The High Commission for Planning (HCP) has announced that inflation has continued its downward trajectory for the third consecutive quarter, reaching -0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to 2% at the start of the year. This shift is attributed to a 0.7% drop in food prices, coupled with a 0.4% rise in non-food product prices, according to the HCP's economic update. This report examines key economic indicators from the third quarter of 2025, offers estimates for the fourth quarter, and provides forecasts for the first quarter of 2026. The notable decrease in food inflation is largely driven by a significant reduction in olive oil prices, thanks to an abundant national harvest, as well as a decline in meat prices. Additionally, the decrease in import prices for cereals and dry legumes, following improved supply on global markets, has further supported this trend. However, these positive developments have been somewhat offset by persistent pressures on the prices of fresh produce and coffee. Meanwhile, the ongoing decline in energy prices, albeit at a slower rate than the previous quarter (-1.1% compared to -3%), has contributed to containing the rise in non-food product prices, influenced by the drop in international oil prices. Regarding core inflation, which excludes government-regulated and volatile products, it followed a similar but more pronounced path than overall inflation, reaching -0.7% after being at +0.7% the previous quarter, primarily due to reduced pressures on its food component.
