According to the Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP), inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, fell by almost half in the second quarter of 2024 compared with the first quarter, dropping to 0.7% from 1.2%. This decline was driven by a 0.5% fall in food prices, while non-food prices accelerated by 1.5%, following a 0.9% increase in the first quarter, according to the HCP's second-quarter 2024 business review and third-quarter 2024 outlook. Underlying inflation, which excludes prices set by the state and volatile products, also fell from 2.5% to 2.2%, due to lower food and manufactured product prices. The primary driver of the overall inflation decline was the fall in fresh food prices, contributing -0.8% compared to -0.5% in the previous quarter. This decrease is attributed to lower prices for fresh vegetables and citrus fruits, following sharp increases in the same quarter of 2023. Prices for eggs, poultry, and cooking oil also fell. However, some foodstuffs, such as fruit, red meat, and spices, increased in price due to drought and higher production costs. Non-food prices increased after several quarters of decline, mainly due to a 4.2% rise in energy inflation linked to the adjustment of gas and fuel prices. Prices for manufactured goods continued to fall slightly, while those for services remained stable. For the third quarter of 2024, inflation is expected to remain virtually stable, reaching around 0.8% for headline inflation and 2.1% for core inflation, supported by reduced inflationary pressures in the food and non-energy goods sectors.
