DR ‹ › Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 5% in 2026, up from an estimated 4.7% in 2025, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP). This improvement is projected to be driven by a recovery in the agricultural sector and continued momentum in non-agricultural activities, supported by strong domestic demand in a stable price environment. In its 2026 Economic Budget Outlook (BEP), the HCP describes a phase of sustained acceleration in economic growth over four consecutive years. Although the start of the 2025–2026 agricultural season was marked by a significant rainfall deficit, abundant and well-distributed rains from late November helped offset the delay, pointing to a more favorable agricultural outlook. These improved climatic conditions are expected to contribute to the replenishment of dam reserves and the recharge of groundwater. Livestock activity is also forecast to recover in 2026, supported by the royal decision to forgo the Eid Al-Adha sacrifice in 2025, improved vegetation cover, greater pasture availability, and the implementation of the national livestock restocking program. As a result, agricultural value added is expected to grow by 10.4% in 2026, up from an estimated 4.5% in 2025, assuming cereal production exceeds its average level. Fishing activity is also projected to post a modest recovery in 2026, following a decline in 2025 due to reduced volumes of coastal and artisanal landings. Overall, the primary sector is expected to grow by 10% in 2026, compared with 3.7% in 2025, contributing 1.1 percentage points to national economic growth, up from 0.4 points the previous year. Non-agricultural activities, which expanded by 4.5% in 2025, are forecast to grow by 4.3% in 2026, supported by robust domestic demand and spillover effects from major investment projects. Within this segment, secondary activities grew by 4.8% in 2025 and are expected to increase by nearly 4.2% in 2026, maintaining a stable contribution of around 1.1 percentage points to overall growth in both years. The tertiary sector is expected to confirm its resilience, with growth of 4.3% in 2026 after 4.5% in 2025, contributing 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026, compared with 2.4 points in 2025. The trade and repair sector, which accounted for an average of 19.1% of tertiary value added between 2014 and 2024, is projected to grow by nearly 3.9% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026. Meanwhile, accommodation and food service activities continued their strong recovery in 2025, recording growth of nearly 9.7%. In nominal terms, GDP growth is expected to slow slightly from 6.7% in 2025 to 6.3% in 2026, reflecting an inflation rate, measured by the implicit GDP deflator, of 1.3% in 2026, down from 1.9% in 2025.
