Good news for the kingdom: S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Morocco's sovereign credit rating to BBB-/A-3 with a stable outlook, praising its favorable macroeconomic policies and resilience to external shocks. The decision reflects the ongoing consolidation of public finances. S&P Global Ratings upgraded Morocco's sovereign credit rating on Friday from BB+/B to BBB-/A-3, with a stable outlook. The U.S. agency praised Morocco's macroeconomic policies as «favorable», citing a controlled fiscal trajectory and resilience to external shocks. In its report, S&P highlighted the gradual consolidation of public finances, a contained current account deficit, low inflation, and adequate foreign exchange reserves. It also pointed to the implementation of structural reforms that have strengthened the kingdom's ability to withstand international uncertainties. The Moroccan economy performed strongly in the first half of 2025, with GDP expanding 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter. Growth was driven by construction, manufacturing, tourism, information technology, and rising agricultural and phosphate output. Unemployment fell to 12.8% in June 2025, down from 13.1% a year earlier. An Encouraging Trajectory Looking ahead to 2025–2028, S&P forecasts average real growth of 4%, supported by domestic demand and investment. GDP per capita is expected to climb from $4,700 in 2025 to more than $5,700 in 2028, still modest for this rating category. The budget deficit is projected to narrow to around 3% of GDP by 2026, while net public debt should fall below 60% of GDP by 2028 (compared with 62.3% in 2024). Interest payments are expected to remain contained at about 7% of state revenues. The current account deficit is forecast to widen slightly, averaging just above 2% of GDP between 2025 and 2028. However, robust exports, tourism, manufacturing, phosphate sales, and remittances from Moroccans abroad should partly offset higher imports linked to major infrastructure projects and strong domestic demand. Foreign direct investment is expected to grow by more than 20% annually over the same period, supported by the energy, automotive, transport, and pharmaceutical sectors, as well as preparations for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations and the 2030 World Cup. The stable outlook reflects a balance between reform-driven momentum and persistent vulnerabilities: relatively low GDP per capita, high unemployment, exposure to climate risks, and geopolitical uncertainty. S&P cautioned that fiscal slippage or a weakening external position could trigger a downgrade, while faster growth or greater exchange rate flexibility could pave the way for another upgrade—an unprecedented step for Morocco.
