Two university researchers in Marrakech have explored the specific factors and obstacles contributing to school dropout across 75 Moroccan provinces. Their study identifies polygamous family structures, which remain prevalent in certain regions, as one of the factors associated with higher dropout rates. Faced with limited data on the factors contributing to school dropout in Morocco, two researchers from Cadi Ayyad University in Marrakech and Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P) have adopted a combined geographical approach to investigate. Their study aimed to identify specific variables across 75 provinces, using 100 references as the basis for their analysis. In their research, titled «Territorial obstacles causing early school dropout in Morocco: Multivariate spatial analysis», Aomar Ibourk and Soukaina Raoui identified factors such as overcrowded households with polygamous structures. In such families, the financial burden on the head of the household is significantly greater, particularly when they are the sole provider, researchers explain. As a result, the study highlights polygamy as an «aggravating factor» in children's exclusion from school. Yet, the researchers emphasize that the dropout process is «multifactorial, correlative, and cumulative nature». A phenomenon aggravated by territorial factors The study also identifies the marital status of widows as a factor that challenges women's autonomy. Poverty, isolation, and the remoteness of certain predominantly rural provinces are additional determinants, especially in areas with higher dropout rates. The accumulation of these factors increases the likelihood of students leaving the education system prematurely. The statistics confirm these observations, showing that dropout rates are as low as 1% in regions with fewer risk factors. However, this figure rises to 25% in provinces heavily impacted by these challenges, with an overall national average of 8%. By geographical distribution, regions such as Casablanca, Rabat, Guelmim, Boujdour, Es-Semara, Tan-Tan, and Assa-Zag have the lowest dropout rates. Conversely, the highest rates are recorded in provinces such as Chichaoua, Essaouira, Rehamna, Youssoufia, Azilal, Al Hoceima, Chefchaouen, Figuig, Guercif, Taounate, Moulay Yacoub, and Sidi Bennour. The study also highlights the strong correlation between dropping out before age 15 and low-skilled employment. On the other hand, early pre-schooling and community school models play a significant role in retaining students within the education system for longer periods. The researchers advocate for targeted interventions at the territorial level, emphasizing the need for multidimensional and multisectoral adjustments that address local ecosystems and their unique challenges. This aligns with findings from the Ministry of Education, which reports that nearly half (45.5%) of school dropouts occur in rural areas. The Ministry of National Education, Preschool, and Sport reported a 12% decrease in school dropout rates from 334,000 in the 2021-2022 school year to 294,000 in 2022-2023. However, the economic cost remains high. According to the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council (CESE), school dropouts consume nearly 10% of the national education budget, amounting to around 9 billion dirhams annually. Recommendations to combat dropouts The CESE has called for the expansion of community schools in rural areas, ensuring they are well-equipped and supported by accessible school transport services. Additionally, the Council recommends strengthening vocational training programs in rural regions, tailoring specializations to meet the needs of specific territories. The researchers stress that school dropouts not only deprive children of the chance to develop their potential but also hinder regional development. They cite alarming figures: in the 2019/2020 school year alone, 304,545 students left public schools without certification, with 78% of these dropouts occurring in primary and middle school—cycles that are supposed to retain students until the age of 15. Lastly, the study draws attention to Morocco's relatively low performance in international assessments, such as the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS), underscoring the need for urgent reforms to address this critical issue.
