Following the narrative of Spain's far right, Spanish military officials continue to warn of so-called «Moroccan threats». In a recent analysis, military commander Emilio José Arias Otero argued that Spain is ill-prepared to counter Morocco, cautioning against relying on improvised responses rather than a coherent strategy. Arias Otero, currently an analyst in the planning department of the Spanish Army's General Staff, which oversees medium- and long-term strategic planning, stressed that «Morocco's continuous defense spending should motivate the enhancement and strengthening of Spain's armed forces». Instead, he noted, Madrid's stance remains «a pure reaction», leaving Rabat to set the pace of confrontation. The report claimed Morocco employs hybrid strategies «without reaching the threshold of armed conflict» to exert pressure while avoiding direct military escalation. Examples cited include the migration crisis of May 2021, the unilateral closure of Melilla's commercial borders in 2018, disinformation and espionage operations such as the alleged use of Pegasus software, and the use of Western Sahara as a bargaining tool. Arias Otero also criticized the Spanish government's decision to support Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara without securing concrete concessions in return. He warned this could be interpreted as «a policy of appeasing the aggressor», a dangerous approach that involves granting demands without limits or guarantees. Such a policy, he added, carries the risk of «not knowing when the aggressor's demands will stop» and makes it difficult to define red lines. The report further highlighted Morocco's modernization of its military equipment, warning that Spain could soon lose its strategic edge. Arias Otero cautioned that Morocco's favorable geographical position, rising defense budget, and growing military capabilities «could create a dilemma if they surpass Spain's military capabilities». He noted that Morocco's potential acquisition of F-35 fighter jets would make it a «formidable adversary», placing it in a stronger negotiating position and increasing the cost of defending Spanish sovereignty. Finally, the report stressed that Ceuta and Melilla are not covered by Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which guarantees collective defense. In the event of aggression, Madrid could invoke Article 4 for consultations, but collective military support would not be assured.
