Will Belgium follow France's lead in recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara? A first step in that direction may already have been taken. The Belgian coalition government, nicknamed «Arizona» and formed on February 3, 2025, by liberals, socialists, Christian Democrats, and Flemish nationalists, has introduced a bill to recognize Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara, according to Africa Intelligence. The bill is expected to be examined by MPs in the coming weeks. Originally put forward in May by the Reform Movement (MR), the initiative has since gained the backing of other members of Belgium's ruling majority. Africa Intelligence notes that «the increasing exchanges between the two kingdoms suggest a shift in Belgium's stance on the Western Sahara issue. At stake is the revision of the bilateral treaty concerning the repatriation of Moroccan prisoners». Even before the Arizona coalition came to power, Morocco had already agreed to the return of its nationals in irregular situations. In November 2024, under the Vivaldi coalition, Belgian authorities announced they had expelled more than 200 Moroccans living irregularly in the country, a figure that had «quadrupled» compared to 2023, as then–Secretary of State for Asylum and Migration Nicole de Moor pointed out. Should Belgium formally recognize Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara, it would mark a continuation of Brussels' existing position. Belgium has repeatedly voiced support for Morocco's autonomy plan. Current Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot reaffirmed this stance during talks with his Moroccan counterpart, Nasser Bourita. Back in October 2022, Belgium's then–Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib had already described Morocco's 2007 autonomy proposal as a «good basis» for resolving the conflict.
