Morocco's diplomatic victories have led to economic consequences for the Algerian population. Algiers has chosen to impose trade restrictions on France over its recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara. Algeria is making France pay for its recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, echoing the diplomatic fallout Spain faced after supporting Morocco's autonomy plan. The once-thriving French exports to Algeria have sharply declined, reflecting the ongoing diplomatic tensions between the two nations. In 2022, France accounted for 14% of Algeria's agri-food imports, a market valued at 1.3 billion euros. By the end of 2023, this figure plummeted to 628 million euros, with the outlook for 2024 appearing even bleaker. The cereal sector is particularly hard-hit, with French wheat exports to Algeria experiencing a drastic decline. France, once a principal supplier, saw its wheat exports fall from 5.4 million tons in 2018 to just 608,000 tons in 2023. Projections for 2025 suggest that French wheat exports to Algeria could cease entirely. The impact extends beyond cereals. The cattle sector, a significant component of French-Algerian trade, faces a similar downturn. In 2022, France exported 167 million euros worth of live cattle to Algeria, but this figure was halved to 73 million euros a year later, with 2024 prospects looking grim. The dairy sector, which initially fared better, is now also affected. In 2023, France exported 266 million euros worth of dairy products to Algeria, but by 2024, there was a sharp 25% drop in volumes between January and November. Economic sanctions amid Polisario interests The precipitous decline is primarily political. In July 2024, tensions between Paris and Algiers escalated following Emmanuel Macron's letter to the King of Morocco, which referenced «an autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty» for Western Sahara. This marked a pivotal moment for Algeria, which responded by quietly intensifying trade restrictions against France. Algeria, once heavily reliant on French wheat, is now sourcing 80% to 90% of its wheat from the Black Sea region, primarily Russia. To facilitate this shift, Algeria has adjusted its specifications, easing quality criteria and effectively excluding France from the market. Beyond product restrictions, French manufacturers face administrative hurdles. French firms frequently report arbitrary blockages, with essential customs certificates becoming suddenly inaccessible. New halal certification requirements, now under the exclusive purview of the Grand Mosque of Paris and Algerian authorities, complicate matters further, impacting products like milk, biscuits, and baby formula.
