Can Morocco succeed in having the Polisario Front listed as a terrorist organization by the United States? As tensions escalate in the Sahara and the Sahel, Rachid Benlabbah, a Moroccan academic and specialist in Sahara and Sahel studies at the University Institute of African, Euro-Mediterranean, and Ibero-American Studies in Rabat, examines the legal, political, and security dynamics of Morocco's diplomatic offensive against a militarized Polisario and a weakened Algeria. Will Morocco succeed in having the Polisario listed as a terrorist organization in the U.S.? For over two years, the idea of designating the Polisario as a terrorist organization, particularly in the United States, has been widely discussed. The involvement of Sahrawis in jihadist groups in the Sahel, along with recent attacks on civilians in the Es-Smara region, strengthens this perspective. However, such a decision must be based on objective criteria and adhere to the definitions of terrorism established by both the United Nations and the U.S., as set out in the 1999 Convention and Resolution 1566 of 2004. In the U.S., Executive Order 13224 serves as the reference. The definition of terrorism is often debated in international law, and each country has its own list, sometimes applied in questionable ways. The U.S. takes its moral responsibility on the international stage seriously. The process of adding violent organizations to the terrorism list culminates in a decision by Congress. For the Polisario, this idea—recently revived by Congressman Joe Wilson—could become a reality by October. There are concrete facts that support this, including acts of armed violence, the military recruitment of children, and the unilateral breach of the ceasefire. It's important to remember that the Polisario is a political organization, not a state recognized by the United Nations. Rachid Benlabbah The absence of the UN in the Tindouf camps is concerning. The international organization doesn't control the Polisario's weapons... The danger posed by the Polisario lies in its armed wing, a non-state group supported by an independence-focused political organization. This branch poses a significant risk to the region, as it is heavily armed and militarily controls the populations in the Tindouf camps. The UN has not established any inventory of this armament, in terms of quantity, type, or origin, nor has it counted the members of this armed branch or assessed its cost to the international community. What is Algeria's responsibility in this situation? As the host country, Algeria could remove this weaponry if necessary. A permanent UN control mechanism should have been established by now. It's crucial to consider how to demobilize and disarm the Polisario, especially in the event of a weakening of Algerian power, increased instability in the Sahel, or potential links with other armed groups. If that were to happen, who would control the weaponry and prevent potential leaks, posing a serious risk to all neighboring countries? Security in the Sahara and Sahel is interconnected. Could the crisis between Algeria and Mali escalate into armed conflict? It's unlikely that an armed conflict will break out between Mali and Algeria. While Mali and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) condemned Algeria's military intervention on their territory, they chose to address the issue through legal channels, opening a judicial investigation for an act of terrorism and filing a complaint with the United Nations. In the event of war, Algeria would face the AES, which is governed by the Liptako-Gourma collective defense Charter of September 2023. ECOWAS, for its part, would not remain indifferent and would support the Sahel countries despite any institutional differences. Besides the Polisario, does Algeria have allies in the event of a conflict with Mali? The option of relying on the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA) is compromised due to the current impasse within the organization. Article 14 of the Constitutive Treaty, which calls for mutual assistance in case of aggression, could be invoked, but only in the event of legitimate defense. The Maghreb countries are not willing to risk their stability for an unpredictable conflict, especially with international actors in the Sahel whose interests diverge. Mauritania and Libya, both ethnically and culturally connected to the Sahel, are focused on peace for their development. Tunisia, on the other hand, seems to want to distance itself from such conflicts, as evidenced by the reactions of the Tunisian media during the visit of the Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs. An armed conflict—even a brief, proxy one—could lead to the displacement of thousands of Tuaregs and Malian Arabs to Algeria, creating refugee camps under military control, with the risk of infiltration by criminal and terrorist groups. Are the Algerian military ready to take such a risk? A prolonged conflict could destabilize the Algerian government, especially since the Algerian army has never been engaged in high-intensity warfare. Such a war would require internal cohesion, apolitical command, and a strong national cause to defend. The deterioration of relations between Mali and Algeria is structural, particularly because of the Tuareg issue and northern Mali. Malians perceive Algerian influence negatively, considering it interference in their internal affairs. The 2015 Peace Accords were never implemented due to a lack of consensus on a Malian solution, and this has exacerbated tensions, especially after 2021, because of Algiers' attitude toward the transitional governments in Bamako and Niamey. Can Morocco take advantage of this situation to strengthen its position in the region, or do international actors hinder its ambitions? Morocco has no interest in seeing the Sahel-Sahara region destabilized. The country's official policy is one of peace, and without peace, its ambition for economic development in Africa would be compromised. The stability of the Sahel ensures the stability of Mauritania, a key partner for Morocco. Algeria's strained relations with its neighbors could work to Morocco's advantage in the international arena. Morocco does not need conflicts to strengthen its political and economic relations with the Sahel countries. It seeks open borders, a predictable foreign policy, and stability. The Sahel countries, including Mauritania, Senegal, and ECOWAS members, would be more inclined to cooperate with Morocco if it remains committed to peace and strategic interdependence.
