To sustain its social model, keep its economy running, and address an aging population, France will need to rely on an additional 310,000 immigrant workers annually until 2040-2050. According to a report by the think tank Terra Nova, this number is essential for maintaining the active-to-inactive ratio. In 2022, France welcomed 331,000 immigrants. In sectors known for labor shortages, such as home care, construction, and cleaning, immigrants remain overrepresented. Foreign workers are also increasingly present in skilled professions, as seen in the medical sector, where one-fifth of practitioners hold degrees from abroad. A report released on Monday, May 12, by the think tank Terra Nova examines this trend in light of an aging population, declining birth rates, and the active/inactive ratio. The report also underscores the importance of the «acceptability» of immigration and public perceptions of it. Citing a survey by the Center for Research on Living Conditions, it notes that 73% of respondents «overestimate the proportion of immigrants in the population», which is actually 10.7% according to Insee, but is often perceived as «over 25%». In this context, favorable opinions tend to favor «chosen» immigration, tailored to economic needs. Terra Nova's report offers insightful forecasts. It estimates that by 2070, «only maintaining a high migratory balance can ensure an increase in the active population». The authors point out that «if demographic trends continue beyond 2040 as projected in earlier scenarios, active population projections show a general decline by 2070». The first hypothesis suggests that a fertility rate of 1.8, combined with a persistent zero migratory balance, «would lead to a very negative demographic dynamic». «The total population would reach 60.3 million by 2070, compared to 66.9 million in 2040. The population aged 15 and over would be 53.2 million, while those over 64 would number 20.7 million», the report predicts. Combining Birth Rates and Labor Market Needs This trend will inevitably result in «a decrease in the active population, which would not exceed 28 million in 2070, compared to 30.3 million in 2040», thus affecting the demographic support ratio, which was set at 1.23 in 2020. According to Terra Nova, this ratio is expected to drop to 1.13 in 2040 and 1.05 in 2070. «In this scenario, by 2070, an inactive person would be supported by an active one, meaning an active person would have to support two people: themselves and an inactive person», the report states. Source: Terra Nova A second hypothesis suggests that «if the projection based on data from the previous scenario leads to a decrease in the active population by 2070, the same would apply for a low migratory balance (20,000 per year) and a fertility rate of 1.8». The total population would then decline from nearly 68 million in 2040 to 64 million in 2070. Those over 15 would decrease from 57.5 million in 2040 to 54.9 million in 2070. Meanwhile, «the population over 64 would increase slightly (20 million in 2070 compared to 19 million in 2040), while the active population would fall from 30.3 million in 2040 to 27.7 million in 2070». Consequently, «the demographic support ratio would deteriorate even more rapidly than in the previous scenario». In a third hypothesis, where the fertility rate is 1.6 children per woman with the same migratory balance of 20,000 per year, «active population projections would worsen further, reaching 26.1 million in 2070». The report suggests that «a 0.2-point difference in fertility could lead to a shortfall of nearly 2.6 million active people by 2070». «The demographic support ratio would also decline: it would be 0.99 compared to 1.02 in the previous scenario. In this case, there would be more inactive people than active ones», the report warns. A fourth hypothesis, with a migratory balance of 120,000 people per year and a fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman, would sustain an active population of 31.9 million in 2070, compared to 31.6 million in 2040. «The gap compared to the scenario where the migratory balance is zero and fertility is 1.8 would be nearly 3.8 million additional active people. However, the demographic support ratio would still deteriorate to 1.09. In this scenario, 33% of the population aged 15 and over would be over 64», the report emphasizes. By comparison, «this rate rises to 35% in the low migratory balance scenario with a fertility rate of 1.8». To increase the active population by 2070 and «contain the deterioration of the demographic support ratio, a high migratory balance is necessary», the report concludes. A Trend Affecting Other EU Countries Considering a high fertility rate of 2 and a high migratory balance, a fifth scenario suggests that «the active population would increase, driven by the growth of the total population in France». Specifically, «the number of active people would rise from 31.7 million to 33.6 million between 2045 and 2070. Meanwhile, the demographic support ratio would remain stable between 2050 and 2070, stabilizing at around 1.12». The think tank highlights the need for 310,000 new immigrants per year to stabilize the population and maintain the social model by 2040 and 2050, given that «none of the scenarios presented so far prevent the long-term degradation of the demographic support ratio». The report asserts that «immigration is necessary to offset the downward trend in the active population and the demographic support ratio», as seen in countries like Italy, Germany, and Spain. Source: Terra Nova Before the 2023 pension reform, the need for additional immigration was at least 120,000 people per year to address the decline in the active population and the demographic support ratio, without halting its deterioration. Given current trends and future projections, the think tank now estimates that «515,380 active people will be needed between 2025 and 2040 to stabilize the support ratio». However, this trend is not unique to France. The authors remind us that «many European countries will experience, or are already experiencing, similar situations». Of the 27 countries in the European Union, 21 already have a negative natural balance, and 6 to 7 countries, including Hungary, Greece, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, and Italy, are losing population. Among them, 15 states «owe their demographic growth solely to immigration», in a region where the employment rate reached 74.6% and the unemployment rate stood at 6.2% in 2022. Within the EU, 38 professions are in high demand for labor, particularly in health, hospitality, construction, services, information and security technologies, and STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), with a recognized need for labor immigration.
