As the World Meteorological Organization has warned over the past week about the almost irreversible warming of the planet, Morocco is already preparing for potential scenarios that could disrupt its national and regional characteristics. This is because changes have been noticeable for years now, with historical drought periods and unseasonal temperature spikes. Over the past week, the latest data have been more alarming than ever, confirming long-standing scientific predictions. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is now an 80% chance that the record set by 2024 as the hottest year will be broken at least once in the next five years. Rising temperatures, no longer anomalies but the new norm, highlight the growing disruptions in the global climate system. The WMO also reports an 8% probability that at least one of the next five years will exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold compared to the 1850–1900 baseline. In its recent report, the WMO warns there's a 70% chance that the average warming between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 1.5°C, alongside ongoing Arctic warming that outpaces the global average. While long-term warming averaged over decades remains below 1.5°C, precipitation patterns vary widely by region, the organization notes. In this global context, Morocco is far from immune to these trends—especially as it sits in a critical Mediterranean hotspot for climate disruption. Morocco: A Regional Climate «Hotspot» Scientists warn of the increasingly irreversible nature of climate change worldwide. Morocco has already recorded historic spikes in seasonal temperatures, worsening the impact of seven years of unprecedented drought and below-average rainfall. Houcine Youabed, Communications Director at the Directorate General of Meteorology (DGM), told Yabiladi that Morocco is «fully concerned by the UN's global forecasts», adding that the country is «even more exposed than the global average due to its geographical position». He highlighted that the Mediterranean region is now recognized by the IPCC and other scientific bodies as a «climate hotspot». «You see faster warming here than the global average», Youabed explained, «with clear effects like hotter summers, reduced precipitation—especially in winter—and increased year-to-year variability, meaning alternating dry years and occasional heavy rains. Morocco, located at the crossroads of the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Sahara, is particularly vulnerable—especially in its coastal, mountainous, and arid zones». Hotter years Heatwaves and drought in Morocco are directly linked to global warming, though it remains unclear if any recent signs of relief represent a lasting trend. According to Youabed, recent data confirm that the country is «already feeling the tangible effects of climate change». Morocco «has experienced its three hottest years on record consecutively, with heatwaves becoming longer, more frequent, and more intense». One striking example: the August 7–14, 2023 heatwave—the most severe in the nation's history—peaked at 50.4°C in Agadir on August 11, breaking all previous records. Consequently, 2023 was Morocco's hottest year ever, surpassing 2022, with an average temperature anomaly of +1.77°C compared to the 1981–2010 average. Youabed added, «This trend isn't limited to summer. We've seen unusual heat spikes during winter months too—in January, November 2024, and March 2025—bringing temperatures well above seasonal norms. Climate change now affects all seasons». When asked about potential mitigation, he noted that current models suggest these trends will persist unless there is swift, decisive global action. In response, Morocco has launched national efforts focused primarily on adapting to climate impacts—improving water management, developing more resilient agriculture, and establishing early warning systems, Youabed said. These strategies also account for occasional heavy rainfall, helping to plan for future scenarios. The 2024–2025 period, for instance, has seen some positive effects from off-season rains, but it's too early to tell if these shifts mark the start of a new climate pattern with altered wet and dry seasons. Youabed noted that these irregularities may reflect a disrupted climate where seasons shift and extreme weather becomes more frequent—extending wet seasons and increasing the intensity of rainfall over short periods. However, he cautions that «one year isn't enough to confirm a climate shift». Only repeated patterns over several years would indicate a structural change, with major consequences for agriculture, water management, and regional planning.
