A new study warns that Morocco's Al Wahda Dam, located in the seismically active Rif Mountains, faces a 100% probability of at least one moderate earthquake (≥4 Mw) within the next 25 years. The forecast is based on a newly developed probabilistic modeling framework used by researchers to assess seismic risk. Al Wahda Dam, Morocco's largest hydraulic structure, lies in one of the most seismically active zones in the country, the Rif Mountains. A recent scientific study, published on Monday by Science Direct, highlights the significant earthquake risks facing the region and warns of the dam's growing vulnerability. Given the area's complex tectonic setting and historical record of destructive earthquakes, the researchers have developed a new probabilistic modeling framework to assess the recurrence and magnitude of potential seismic events, with a particular focus on threats to the Al Wahda Dam watershed. The study spans a full century of seismic data, covering the period from 1923 to 2023. It incorporates neotectonic mapping to identify active fault systems and applies advanced computational tools to simulate earthquake probabilities. This approach allows for a detailed analysis of both the frequency and spatial distribution of seismic events in the region, offering a more accurate understanding of the geological hazards that could compromise the safety and structural integrity of the dam. 100% chance of moderate quakes in 25 years The results are alarming. According to the model, there is a 100% probability of at least one moderate-magnitude earthquake, defined as a quake measuring 4 Mw (Moment Magnitude Scale) or more, striking the area within the next 25 years. Additionally, the study estimates a more than 20% chance of lower-magnitude tremors (≤ 3 Mw) in the same timeframe. What's especially concerning is the concentration of seismic activity around the dam's extremities. The findings also identify «fault zones, such as the Jebha Fault and the Intra-Mesorif Contact, as key contributors to regional seismicity», the researchers note. These projections underscore the urgent need for enhanced safety planning and risk mitigation strategies. The authors stress that their findings are critical for long-term land use planning and disaster preparedness in the region. «They are essential for land use planning, dam safety, and mitigation strategies, providing tools for improving resilience against geological hazards, while bridging the gap between earth sciences and geotechnical applications», the study concludes.
