By the end of the 21st century, the Sahara Desert could receive up to 75% more summer rainfall than it does today, according to a recent multi-model study. Led by researcher Thierry Ndetatsin Taguela from the University of Illinois Chicago, the analysis, based on 40 climate models, compares the periods 2050–2099 and 1965–2014, projecting a notable increase in precipitation across North, East, and Central Africa, while West Southern Africa is expected to experience drier conditions. Scientists note, however, that this increase will not turn the desert into a green landscape. The Sahara's annual average of about 3 inches of rain could rise, but many areas would still see little to no rainfall. The projected wetting trend aligns with a warming atmosphere capable of holding more moisture, which can intensify rainfall when storms occur. Yet researchers warn of major uncertainties, with over 85% of the variation between models linked to how they simulate small-scale processes such as cloud formation and convection. «We have to start planning to face these changes from flood management to drought-resistant crops», said Taguela, stressing the importance of early adaptation strategies. The study was published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
