Following an initial article published in November on the Sahara issue, Christopher Ross comes back with another analysis. This stance comes at a time when Brahim Ghali's movement is under pressure from the Trump administration to engage in a framework of discussions based on the autonomy plan proposed by Morocco for Western Sahara. DR ‹ › Christopher Ross, the former UN Secretary-General's personal envoy for Western Sahara, has issued a stark warning about the potential for renewed deadlock in the political process. In a recent op-ed, the American diplomat argues that the new momentum in talks, set in motion by the Trump administration, could lead to another impasse if the critical issue of the Sahrawi people's self-determination remains unresolved, despite recent diplomatic progress after years of stagnation. Ross highlights that UN Security Council Resolution 2797, adopted on October 31, significantly alters the negotiation landscape. He notes that the United States has spearheaded efforts to revive discussions, positioning Staffan de Mistura, the UN Secretary-General's personal envoy for Western Sahara, as a co-sponsor of the process. This marks a shift in dynamics, with Washington taking a leading role in the matter. Mounting Pressure on the Polisario This renewed diplomatic push has facilitated discreet meetings in early 2026, involving the four key parties: Morocco, Algeria, the Polisario, and Mauritania. However, Ross points out that this new framework raises several critical questions. He highlights that Resolution 2797 embraces Morocco's autonomy proposal, marking a departure from the Security Council's previous stances. Simultaneously, the resolution retains a crucial element of international law: the necessity of a political solution that guarantees the self-determination of the Western Sahara people. For Ross, this reflects the core contradiction at the heart of the conflict. Morocco advocates for an autonomy regime under its sovereignty, while the Polisario calls for a self-determination referendum. This divergence has long stalled negotiations. Ross argues that the current negotiation phase places significant pressure on the Polisario. With the United States committed to Resolution 2797, alternatives to the Moroccan proposal are effectively sidelined. The Polisario thus faces a process that contradicts its longstanding stance. The former UN envoy acknowledges that accepting such a framework could be particularly challenging for a movement that has pursued independence for nearly fifty years. Considering a Pragmatic Approach by the Polisario Nevertheless, Ross suggests that the Polisario could adopt a pragmatic approach by engaging in negotiations without prejudging their outcome. This strategy aligns with the diplomatic principle that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed," keeping the political process open while maintaining the principle of self-determination. According to Ross, this issue remains the central challenge. Any agreement must have the backing of a majority of Sahrawis, whether residing in Moroccan-administered territories or the Tindouf refugee camps. Without this consent, a settlement risks being contested and could reignite tensions. Ross further stresses that a durable compromise requires robust international guarantees to ensure implementation and foster trust among the parties involved. The former diplomat believes that while the current dynamic represents a significant breakthrough after years of stagnation, it remains precariously fragile. The challenge of reconciling negotiations focused on an autonomy regime with the right of a people to determine their political future presents a particularly intricate equation. "Without reaching a formula that reconciles substantial autonomy with self-determination, acceptable to all parties, the process could swiftly revert to a diplomatic deadlock," he concluded.
