During its meeting on Tuesday in Rabat, the Board of Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) decided to maintain the key interest rate at 2.25%. This decision reflects the moderate inflation trends and the persistent high-level uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook. BAM emphasized that efforts to improve financing conditions for businesses, especially very small enterprises (VSEs), are ongoing. This was highlighted in a press release following the Board's third quarterly meeting of 2025. The Board committed to closely monitoring the economic landscape and making decisions based on the latest data at each meeting. During this session, it assessed both national and international economic developments, along with the central bank's medium-term macroeconomic forecasts. On the national front, projections from Bank Al-Maghrib indicate an economic growth acceleration from 3.8% in 2024 to 4.6% this year, with a stabilization at 4.4% anticipated for 2026. Agricultural output is expected to rise by 5% this year, attributed to a cereal harvest of 41.3 million quintals (MQx), and further increase by 3.2% in 2026, assuming a production of 50 MQx. Non-agricultural sectors, driven by robust infrastructure investment, are projected to grow by approximately 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026. Inflation remains moderate, averaging 1.1% over the first eight months of 2025. BAM forecasts a rate of 1% for this year, maintaining near stability compared to 2024, before rising to 1.9% in 2026. The underlying inflation component is expected to decrease from 2.2% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025, then accelerate to 2% in 2026. Inflation expectations are well anchored, with financial sector experts predicting average rates of 2.1% over an 8-quarter horizon and 2.2% over a 12-quarter horizon as of the third quarter of 2025.
