Algeria presents itself as merely an observer in the Sahara conflict, yet it treats the dispute as a key determinant of its foreign policy and works to diplomatically undermine Morocco. However, the ongoing shifts in the positions of international and regional powers have placed Algeria in a position of weakness. The Algerian stance on the Sahara conflict appears contradictory, marked by a gap between official rhetoric and actual practice. While officials, including President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, insist that Algeria is not a party to the conflict and merely observes, they make the Sahara issue the central focus of the country's foreign policy, directing substantial resources to support the separatist agenda politically, financially, and militarily—contradicting their public statements. Algeria refuses to comply with UN Security Council resolutions or engage in the roundtable process organized by the United Nations, such as the meetings held in December 2018 and March 2019. Instead, Algeria calls for direct negotiations between the «parties to the conflict», referring to Morocco and the Polisario Front. At the same time, it places the Sahara issue at the forefront of its priorities in both continental and international forums, seeking to exploit every possible platform to advance its position. Diplomatic Retreat and Algerian Isolation In recent years, Algeria has been losing diplomatic ground with influential global powers. The United States recognized Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara in December 2020, marking a significant shift in international opinion. In March 2022, Spain declared its support for Morocco's autonomy proposal, calling it the most serious, realistic, and credible solution to the conflict. France followed suit in July, voicing similar support for Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara. Moreover, many European Union countries have backed Morocco's proposal. This diplomatic retreat has led Algerian foreign policy to adopt a reactive stance rather than initiating new strategies, attempting to curb Morocco's progress. In response to Spain's position, Algeria recalled its ambassador from Madrid, only to later return him without reversing Spain's support for autonomy. The same scenario unfolded with France, where Algeria withdrew its ambassador from Paris, and tensions between the two nations remain high. Despite regaining a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council after twenty years, Algeria has been unable to use this position to its advantage. In the most recent Security Council decision on the Sahara, Algeria found itself sidelined, with all its proposed amendments rejected. Even its traditional ally, Russia, did not support Algeria's proposal to expand MINURSO's mandate to include human rights monitoring, exposing the limits of its influence—even within its own sphere. Among countries in the Global South, Algeria's position is weakening. Recognitions of the «Sahrawi Republic» are being withdrawn or frozen, and Morocco's accession to the African Union in 2017 has significantly shifted the positions of many countries. Some of these countries have gone further by opening consulates in Laayoune and Dakhla, further affirming their support for Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara. In an attempt to isolate Morocco regionally, Algeria launched a project to establish a new Maghreb Union without including Morocco, but this effort failed. While Algeria was able to attract Tunisia and further divide Libya internally, Mauritania refused to join and has recently strengthened its economic ties with Morocco through new strategic agreements. Return to the Option of War: A Failed Maneuver Amid growing international isolation, Algeria and the Polisario attempted to draw attention to the conflict through military escalation. In November 2020, the separatist front announced its withdrawal from the ceasefire agreement and a return to «war», a move that appeared to be their last option. However, this maneuver failed to produce any tangible results, as it did not attract international attention or lead to any condemnation of Morocco. With the situation on the ground unchanged, Algeria and the Polisario are now in a difficult position: unable to abandon the «war» option without acknowledging failure, yet unwilling to escalate militarily, as any serious attempt to destabilize the region would prompt the international community to rally behind Morocco to preserve regional security. Thus, with the return of Donald Trump to power in the White House, Algeria faces a new reality it had not anticipated. Rapid international shifts have led to a decline in its influence over the Sahara issue, while Morocco continues to secure diplomatic victories.
