National economic growth is expected to reach 2.7% in the second quarter of 2024, compared to the same period last year (up from an earlier estimate of 2.3%), according to the Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP). «Taking into account a 4.1% drop in agricultural value added, national economic activity should grow by 2.7% in Q2 2024», explains the HCP in its economic outlook report. Non-agricultural value added is forecast to rise by a healthy 3.7% year-on-year. Secondary industries, particularly mining and construction, are expected to continue their upward trend, growing at a rate of 5.3%. Manufacturing output should remain buoyant, benefiting from stronger external demand for chemicals and transport equipment sectors. However, the HCP notes that the pace of industrial growth could slow compared to the first quarter due to sluggishness in textiles and agrifood. Growth in the services sector is expected to remain around 3%, driven mainly by accommodation and non-market services. Foreign demand for Moroccan goods is expected to gradually improve, leading to a less negative contribution from foreign trade to national economic growth. The HCP forecasts a reduced drag of -3.1 points compared to -3.9 points in the previous quarter. Exports are expected to grow by 9.1%, benefiting from a revival in foreign demand, mainly from Europe. Imports are forecast to remain strong, rising by 14.3%, due to rising food prices and continued recovery in demand for equipment. Domestic demand will remain the main driver of national economic growth in the second quarter, according to the HCP. Gains in purchasing power from lower inflation and increased recourse to savings are expected to underpin a 2.6% increase in household consumption. Capital expenditure is expected to maintain its momentum, thanks to increased public spending and continued investment by companies, as import prices for industrial capital goods fall. However, household investment in housing is likely to continue to decline due to persistently high credit costs compared to the pre-2022 period.
