Morocco is facing an intense heatwave with temperatures exceeding 46°C, part of a broader trend of rising extreme heat driven by climate change. The World Bank warns that the country is warming faster than the global average, with forecasts showing more frequent hot days and nights, and growing exposure to dangerous humid heat by mid- and late-century. Morocco is in the midst of a scorching heatwave, accompanied by hot Chergui winds, which is expected to last until Friday, bringing highs of up to 46°C in southern cities and lows of around 33°C in coastal areas such as Casablanca, El Jadida, Essaouira, and Safi. This heatwave, like many before it, and undoubtedly many more to come this summer, is no exception. Worse, it's a growing side effect of climate change. Morocco, like many countries in the Mediterranean basin, is becoming a climate change hotspot, experiencing a rise in extreme temperatures at a rate faster than the global average. In fact, increased temperatures are one of the main physical risks of climate change for Morocco, alongside reduced total rainfall, more extreme weather events, desertification, and sea level rise, according to the World Bank's Climate Risk Country Profile for the Kingdom. Forecasts show rising temperatures in the Kingdom are reflected in a growing number of hot days, which heighten health and wildfire risks, and more tropical nights, which threaten both health and agriculture. Rising minimum and maximum temperatures These impacts are expected to become even more significant by the middle of the 21st century. Moreover, by the end of the century, hot, humid days, detrimental to human health, are expected to become more frequent, the World Bank predicts. In numbers, the World Bank details Morocco's warming trend over the past five decades. Between 1971 and 2020, the country's surface air temperature rose by 0.43°C per decade, exceeding the global trend. Minimum nighttime temperatures increased by 0.39°C per decade, while maximum daytime temperatures rose even faster, at 0.52°C per decade. The largest increases in minimum temperature (Tmin 0.4°C per decade) were recorded in Béni Mellal-Khénifra, Marrakech-Safi, Drâa-Tafilalet, and Souss-Massa, regions that border the High Atlas Mountains. Meanwhile, maximum temperatures saw the steepest rise (around 0.6°C per decade) in Oriental, Fès-Meknès, and Béni Mellal-Khénifra, which include the northern Atlas and the northeastern dry plateau. These rising trends are expected to intensify in the near and distant future. According to the World Bank, under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), the average national temperature is projected to increase from around 18.5°C during the historical baseline period (1995–2014) to approximately 20.2°C between 2040 and 2059. Warming is expected to be more pronounced during the summer months and in the eastern inland regions. Daytime temperatures are projected to rise by about 0.43°C per decade, while nighttime temperatures are forecast to increase from 12.8°C to 14.5°C over the same period. Maximum daily temperatures are also expected to rise from 24.1°C during the baseline to nearly 26°C by mid-century. Frequent hot days and nights Hot days can be dangerous. They increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, wildfires, crop damage, water shortages, and high electricity demand. Historically (1995–2014), Morocco experienced about one month of hot days per year, but that number is expected to double to two months annually by 2040–2059 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. The number of hot days is rising by 4.4 days per decade, especially in regions like Drâa-Tafilalet and Souss-Massa, where extreme heat could last nearly three months a year. About 38% of Morocco's population was exposed to dangerous heat in recent decades. By the end of the century, that figure could rise to 67%, with regions such as Fès-Meknès and Oriental seeing over 90% of the population affected. More specifically, the World Bank indicates that by 2040–2059, almost every summer night in Morocco will be warmer than 20°C, with about 15 nights exceeding 23°C, 7 nights surpassing 26°C, and 3 nights even going beyond 29°C. The number of hot nights is increasing by around 4 nights per decade, with even sharper increases, more than 5 nights per decade, in the hotter eastern regions like Oriental and Drâa-Tafilalet. While only 2% of the population was exposed to these extreme hot nights in the past, that number could rise to 22% by 2075. In regions like Fès-Meknès, Drâa-Tafilalet, and Souss-Massa, up to half the population could be exposed by the end of the century. When both heat and humidity are high, the body struggles to cool down, making heatwaves even more dangerous. The same report expects Morocco to experience around 17 days per year of dangerous humid heat by 2080–2099. In Drâa-Tafilalet and Souss-Massa, these conditions could last for an entire month annually, while most other regions could face at least 3 such days each year. By 2035, humid heat will begin affecting some regions, with up to 10% of the population exposed in Drâa-Tafilalet. By 2075, that figure could rise to two-thirds of the population in Fès-Meknès and one-third in most other regions.
