Analysts see the latest UN resolution endorsing Morocco's autonomy plan as an opening for a U.S.-brokered Morocco–Algeria reconciliation that could stabilize North Africa through energy, security, and migration cooperation. A Middle East Institute researcher argues that linking political dialogue to regional integration could «turn competition into coexistence» and transform Algeria from a regional spoiler into a viable partner. Ahead of the United Nations Security Council's latest resolution endorsing Morocco's autonomy plan as the basis for resolving the Western Sahara conflict, echoes of a Morocco–Algeria reconciliation have begun to emerge. Shortly before the October 31 vote, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff revealed that his team was working on a Morocco–Algeria peace framework, aiming for results within 60 days. Analysts see the moment as an opening for a broader regional reset. According to researcher Intissar Fakir from the Middle East Institute, a U.S.-brokered agreement could do far more than settle the Sahara dispute. It could «unlock an opportunity for Morocco–Algeria reconciliation that integrates the wider Maghreb economy, strengthens Sahel security coordination, and expands energy cooperation». Such a development, she argues, would not only stabilize North Africa but also «advance US interests in burden-sharing with Europe, counter Russian and Chinese influence, and facilitate foreign investment in a region bridging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa». A pragmatic path forward The rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, Fakir notes, is rooted in their post-colonial identities. Morocco emerged as a pro-Western, market-oriented monarchy, while Algeria maintained its revolutionary, state-centric model. Decades later, these differences still shape their foreign policies and mutual distrust. «The Western Sahara is one facet of a deeper competition for regional leadership», she explains. While Morocco projects itself as a bridge between Africa and Europe through initiatives such as the Morocco–Nigeria gas pipeline and the Atlantic Initiative, Algeria emphasizes sovereignty-driven diplomacy and its role as a Sahel security provider. Yet with Algiers increasingly isolated and Rabat gaining international recognition for the 2007 autonomy plan, the balance of influence has shifted. Since severing diplomatic ties with Morocco in 2021, Algeria has rejected mediation offers, the researcher says. Yet Fakir suggests the tide may be turning. The visit of U.S. envoy Massad Boulos to Algiers in mid-2025 was perceived as a chance for engagement. Fearing that the «US Congress will sanction the country for its purchases of Russian weapons under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA)» and watching its influence in Mali and the Sahel decline, Algeria may see renewed dialogue with Washington and Rabat as a pragmatic path forward. «Algeria still holds leverage as Europe's key gas supplier», Fakir notes, but the country needs investment and economic reform without sacrificing stability. A deal combining energy cooperation, economic modernization, and a «face-saving solution» on Western Sahara, she says, could transform Algeria from «regional spoiler into viable negotiating partner». Framework for Peace and Integration The researcher further outlines a two-phase plan for lasting stability between the two neighbors. The first phase focuses on de-escalation, including a cease-fire commitment by the Polisario and confidence-building between Rabat and Algiers. The second expands to regional integration, spanning joint counter-terrorism mechanisms, coordinated migration management, and energy partnerships benefiting both nations. Fakir further proposes a multilateral Sahel coordination mechanism involving the U.S., EU, Morocco, and Algeria, one that «allows Algeria to play the leadership role it seeks, while giving Morocco a more prominent position in regional counter-terrorism efforts». Finally, a collective migration management framework would improve information sharing, prevent fragmentation, and ease political tensions over «migrant dumping», fostering a more balanced EU–Maghreb partnership. «Resolving the Sahara issue alone will not end the rivalry», Fakir insists. «But a comprehensive settlement that links political reconciliation to regional cooperation could finally turn competition into coexistence».
