The Polisario Front and its ally Algeria continue to cling to the 1974 Spanish census as the sole basis for holding a self-determination referendum in Western Sahara, overlooking the major shifts that have since occurred within the United Nations framework. For years, UN Security Council resolutions have made no reference to the settlement plan based on this census, instead calling for a realistic, practical, and mutually acceptable political solution. But what's the story behind this census? Why does Morocco oppose it? And how has it become a key obstacle to reaching a political resolution? The Polisario Front and its main backer, Algeria, continue to hold onto the 1991 settlement plan as the only path to resolving the Western Sahara conflict, even though United Nations Security Council resolutions haven't referenced the plan in years. Instead, they now call for a realistic, practical, and lasting political solution that is acceptable to both parties. The plan originally centered on a referendum for self-determination, based on the population census conducted by Spain in 1974. The 1974 Census : Background and Results In the early 1970s, Spain began preparing to end its colonial rule over the Sahara under pressure from both inside and outside the country, particularly from Morocco. In September 1974, Spanish authorities launched a census of the Saharan population as part of a plan to grant more autonomy to the region and pave the way for a self-determination referendum. A team of experts from Madrid was joined by young Sahrawi students and workers who spoke both Arabic and Spanish and were familiar with the regions and tribes involved. They traveled 60,000 kilometers in ten Land Rovers, and in especially remote areas, used helicopters to reach the population. In each location, the census team worked with sheikhs, tribal leaders recognized by the Spanish administration, and the collected data was processed using computer systems. The final count recorded 73,497 Sahrawis: 38,336 men and 35,161 women. Of those, 35,909 (18,876 men and 17,033 women) were over the age of 17. The tribal breakdown was as follows: Izarguiyens (19,000); Ouled Delim (11,000); Laâroussyens (4,500); Ouled Tidrarin (9,000); Aït Iahcen (3,000); Yaggout (1,000); Ahl Cheikh Ma-el-Ainin (2,500); Filala (200); Toubbalt (600); Mejjat (450); Ladeicat (500); Lemyar (700); Chenagla (100); Aït Oussa (150); Ouled Bou Aïta (40); Ouled Bou Sba (15); Azouafid (80); Imraguen (40). These figures included both settled and semi-nomadic populations living in the region's main cities: Laayoune (28,010), Smara (7,280), and Dakhla (5,370). However, the census did not account for Sahrawis who had fled the territory, whether due to displacement or voluntary migration to escape Spanish reoccupation following Operation Ecouvillon in 1958. According to UN estimates, over the past two decades there have been approximately 30,000 Sahrawi refugees in Morocco, 4,000 in Mauritania, and 2,400 in Algeria. Morocco's Objections In February 1992, a year after the 1991 ceasefire between Morocco and the Polisario, then-Interior Minister Driss Basri challenged the reliability of the 1974 Spanish census. He argued that it had been manipulated to exclude Sahrawis who supported the region's integration into Morocco. Basri stated: «The census was conducted at a time when the Spanish government was facing Morocco's only territorial claim. It was carried out to counter those claims. Those who supported Morocco were excluded, as were those who had fled Spanish control. The whole operation was completed in just six months, despite dealing with a largely nomadic population, which led to the omission of entire tribes not present in the region at the time». «Since this referendum is supposed to determine the region's future once and for all, only those with roots in the region, by blood and lineage, who can be scientifically verified, should have the right to vote», he added. When the process of identifying eligible voters for the planned 1992 referendum began, tensions rose. Morocco submitted a list of thousands of names not included in the 1974 census, which the Polisario rejected. Meanwhile, the United Nations insisted that the number of eligible voters should not exceed 100,000. In 1998, a Moroccan diplomatic delegation visiting Madrid defended the position that «between 220,000 and 240,000 Sahrawis should be included on the voter lists», and accused the Polisario of obstructing the UN plan. The delegation was led by Brahim Hakim, a former «foreign minister» of the Polisario who defected and became a roving ambassador for the Moroccan king. Hakim pointed out that the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) relied not only on the 1974 Spanish census but also on four other criteria: Sahrawis who were in the territory but not counted in the census; their ancestors and descendants; children of parents born in the Sahara; and anyone who had lived in the territory for at least six consecutive or twelve cumulative years prior to 1974. He emphasized that most eligible voters were living in Morocco's southern provinces, while the population in the Tindouf camps represented «a small minority». He added: «The Polisario opposes the participation of all Sahrawi tribes in the referendum». The UN Abandons the Settlement Plan In a June 2001 report, the UN Secretary-General confirmed that «the issue of undetermined tribal affiliation to the territory has been, from the beginning, the focal point of deep disagreement between the parties». He added that «the identification process and all activities related to the implementation of the settlement plan, except maintaining the ceasefire, came to a halt by the end of 1995, when the Polisario Front refused to continue identifying individuals from the 'northern tribes' and 'southern coastal' groups listed in the Spanish census under categories H and J, particularly H41, H61, and J51/52». Responding to Security Council Resolution 1309 (2000), which urged the parties to seek a final resolution, the report noted that Morocco had expressed willingness to engage in serious, open dialogue after 25 years of conflict. However, the Polisario rejected Morocco's proposals, insisting on adherence to the 1991 settlement plan and rejecting any alternative as outdated. The Secretary-General wrote that there was now «great doubt» as to whether the plan could be implemented in its current form in a way that would lead to a swift, durable, and agreed-upon solution. «I fully support this view», he added. The report concluded by recommending that the parties consider «an alternative political solution to the settlement plan», expressing hope that Morocco, the Polisario Front, Algeria, and Mauritania would each engage constructively, under the guidance of the UN Secretary-General's personal envoy, to reach a mutually acceptable resolution to the conflict. Yet despite the UN's formal conclusion that the 1974-census-based settlement plan is no longer viable, the Polisario Front and Algeria continue to insist it remains «the only solution» to the Western Sahara dispute.
