The recent Iranian missile and drone attacks on civilian and military targets in the Gulf have abruptly derailed efforts at rapprochement between Tehran and several Arab states, reinforcing the cautious stance Morocco has maintained since 2017. DR ‹ › The missile and drone strikes launched by Iran against civilian and military targets in several Gulf Arab states have abruptly disrupted the rapprochement process initiated since 2021 between Tehran and certain regional monarchies. This renewed tension now tests a carefully built de-escalation strategy, unfolding against the backdrop of shifting alliances in the Middle East. Since the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023 under Chinese mediation, followed by the gradual return of Emirati and Bahraini ambassadors, the prospect of normalization had appeared increasingly credible. The United Arab Emirates reopened its embassy in Tehran in August 2022, followed by Riyadh and, more recently, Manama in 2024 after eight years of severed ties. These moves reflected a pragmatic approach aimed at containing security risks and safeguarding economic interests. This gradual normalization was driven by clear strategic calculations: reducing the risk of direct confrontation, protecting energy infrastructure, and containing proxy conflicts, particularly in Yemen. It also signaled a broader repositioning by Gulf capitals seeking to diversify partnerships amid perceptions of reduced U.S. engagement in the region. However, the developments since February 28 have shaken this fragile diplomatic architecture. Abu Dhabi's announced withdrawal of its ambassador from Tehran sends a strong signal. Other Gulf states are proceeding with calculated caution, mindful of the delicate military and energy balances at stake. A Consistent Moroccan Stance Since 2017 Against this evolving backdrop, Morocco's position stands out for its consistency. Rabat has never embraced the gamble of warming ties with Tehran, prioritizing long-term security considerations over short-term diplomatic recalibration. Diplomatic relations, severed on May 1, 2018, remain suspended, despite mediation efforts by the United Arab Emirates and Oman in November 2024 that yielded no response. This consistency reflects a broader strategic outlook. As early as 2017, during the height of the Qatar blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt, Morocco warned against interference by «non-Arab parties» seeking to exploit regional divisions, a clear reference to Iran, articulated at the time by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs under Nasser Bourita. Rabat also recalled its historical solidarity with Gulf monarchies, particularly during the Iran-Iraq war (1980–1988). At the 1982 Arab Summit in Fez, King Hassan II advocated political and financial support for Baghdad against Khomeini's Iran. That diplomatic memory continues to shape Morocco's strategic posture today. Morocco had already severed ties with Tehran in 2009 in solidarity with Bahrain. The 2018 rupture, driven by accusations of Iranian support, via Hezbollah, to the Polisario Front, has since cemented Moroccan perceptions of the Iranian threat. For Rabat, the issue extends beyond alignment with Gulf partners; it is viewed as a direct matter of national security.
