DR ‹ › Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, following the first quarterly meeting of its board in 2026. The central bank said the decision reflects the continued momentum of economic activity, moderate inflation levels, and high uncertainty surrounding the global outlook, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments. BAM added that stress tests conducted on the national economy also supported maintaining the current rate. The Bank noted that it will continue to closely monitor domestic and international conditions, including developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on growth and inflation, and will adjust its decisions based on the latest available data. At the national level, favorable weather conditions are expected to significantly boost agricultural output, with cereal production projected at 82 million quintals. Agricultural value added is expected to rise sharply by 14.4% in 2026, after an estimated 5% increase in 2025, before declining by 5.3% in 2027 under a return to average conditions. Meanwhile, non-agricultural growth is set to remain robust at around 4.5%, supported by strong investment in infrastructure. Overall, Morocco's economic growth is projected to reach 5.6% in 2026, following 4.8% in 2025, before slowing to 3.5% in 2027. Inflation remains low, driven by improved food supply and declining fuel prices, and is expected to average 0.8% in 2026 before rising moderately to 1.4% in 2027. On the external front, the current account deficit is projected to widen to 3.1% of GDP in 2026 before easing to 2.5% in 2027, amid higher energy costs. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to strengthen to cover nearly six months of imports by 2027. Bank liquidity needs are projected to increase, while credit to the non-financial sector is expected to accelerate to 6% in 2026. The dirham remains broadly aligned with economic fundamentals, with a slight nominal depreciation expected this year. On public finances, the budget deficit is forecast to gradually decline from 3.6% of GDP in 2025 to 3.4% in 2027.
